一种预测成年身高的新方法

A new model to predict final height.

目的 比较两种预测遗传终身高的方法在中国上海青年的正确性。并作出中国上海青年预测身高的新方法。方法 中国上海青年,男>0岁(n =16 0 ) ,女>18岁(n =16 0 )。以中国上海青年的终身高和他们双亲的平均身高对FPH(theFinalHeightforParentalHeight)和CMH(theCorrectedMidparentalHeight)方法进行统计分析和线性逐步回归得出计算公式。结果 中国上海和瑞典的研究人群的身材是不同的(P <0 .0 0 1)。中国上海人比和他们相对应的瑞典人都矮。瑞典人的父母分别比中国上海人的父母高7cm和6cm。瑞典人的男女青年的终身高比中国上海人男女青年都高5cm。中国上海二代人身高男女分别增加3.5cm和2 .2cm ,而瑞典人仅增加0 .7和1.0cm。FPH方法的平均剩余终身高接近于0 (0 .0 4cm ,P =0 .85 ) .而CMH方法的平均剩余终身高明显的高于期望值0 (2 .87cm ,P <0 .0 0 1)。FPH方法的平均绝对剩余终身高(3.0Cm)明显小于CMH方法(4cm) ,两者差异有高度显著性(P =0 .0 0 0 )。中国上海青年预测身高的新方法男性:Y =0 .5 2 13 X +89 .2 2 5 ;女性:Y =1.0 4 5 8 X - 11.4 99.。Y表示预测终身高,X表示父母的平均身高,单位均是cm。结论 FPH公式优于CMH方法。新方法还有待于进一步验证。

Objective: To examine the validity of the two methods for target height estimation in Shanghai Chinese children and make a new model to predict final height in Shanghai Chinese children. Methods: Boys age>20years(n=160),girls age >18 years(n=160) .Applied CMH method and FPH model to statistics the analysis final height of Shanghai Chinese children and their midparental height. Results: There is a considerable disparity in stature between the Shanghai Chinese and the Swedish study populations. The Shanghai Chinese were shorter than their Swedish counterparts. The Swedish fathers and mothers were 7cm and 6cm taller than the Chinese fathers and mothers ,respectively.The Shanghai Chinese children were more than 5 cm shorter than the Swedes in stature. The secular increase in height over the two generations, however, was 3.5-2.2 cm for The Shanghai Chinese, much larger than that of the Swedes(0.7-1.0cm). The new model derived from Swedish population for estimating target height was shown to be applicable to The Shanghai Chinese children ;the mean of residual final height values was close to zero(0.04cm, P =0.85).However , the mean of residual final height values was significantly above the expected values of zero (2.87cm,P0.001) when the CMH applied to the data.The mean absolute residual final height of FPH method (3cm) below CMH method(4cm) ( P =0.000). A new model to predict final height (Y) in Shanghai Chinese children by a simple linear function of midparental height (X) in centimeters,boys:Y=0.5213X+89.225;girls:Y=1.0458X-11.499.Conclusion: The FPH formula surpasses the CMH method in The Shanghai Chinese children.