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美国西部的长期干旱变化 被引量：1

Long-term Aridity Changes in the Western United States
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摘要 一些水文气候资料分析表明,美国西部正在经历着多年的严重干旱。然而,利用重建的覆盖美国西部大部分地区的过去1200年的网格化干旱资料进行分析,看出与更早时期出现的极端干旱和发生在公元800～1300年间(中世纪暖期(MWP))的大范围严重干旱相比,现在正经历的干旱还不算很严重。如果美国西部干旱程度的加强是一种对气候变暖的自然响应,那么任何将来温度增暖的趋势都将会加剧美国西部地区的长期干旱。
作者 Edward R. Cook Connie A. Woodhouse C. Mark Eakin David M. Meko David W. Stahle 王涓力
机构地区 Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research Department of Geosciences
出处 《干旱气象》 2005年第1期90-94,共5页 Journal of Arid Meteorology
关键词 美国 西部地区 长期干旱变化 气候变暖 PDSI重建资料 气象灾害
分类号 P426.616 [天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X16 [环境科学与工程—环境科学]
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参考文献33

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  • 2[2]D. Miskus, U.S. Drought Monitor (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Weather Service/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, available at www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html), 2004.
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  • 6[6]A. Dai, K. E. Trenberth, T. Qian, J. Hydrometeorol., in press.
  • 7[7]Materials and methods are available as supporting material on Science Online.
  • 8[8]E.R. Cook, D. M. Meko, D. W. Stahle, M. K. Cleaveland, J. Clim.12, 1145 (1999).
  • 9[9]Z. Zhang, M. E. Mann, E. R. Cook, Holocene 14, 502 (2004).
  • 10[10]The calibration and verification statistics used to assess the goodness-of-fit and validity of the PDSI reconstructions are (i) the calibration period coefficient of multiple determination or regression R2 (CRSQ), (ii) the verification period square of the Pearson correlation coefficient or r2 (VRSQ), (iii) the reduction of error (RE),and (iv) the coefficient of efficiency (CE) (8). The magnitudes of these statistics, as measures of explained variance, are strongly dependent on the number of tree-ring chronologies available for PDSI reconstruction at each grid point (7) (fig. S3). When these statistics are calculated for the 103 grid point West regional average PDSI reconstruction, CRSQ, VRSQ, RE, and CE are 0.86,0.73, 0.78, and 0.72, respectively, for the most highly replicated post-1800 period of the reconstruction, based on a median of 41tree-ring predictors per grid point reconstruction, and 0.68, 0.54,0.64, and 0.53, respectively, when based on the smallest subset of tree-ring predictors available at the start of each grid point reconstruction (a median of 2 per grid point) (7) (fig. S3). Although there is indeed a decline in calibration and verification skill as the number of tree-ring chronologies available for reconstruction declines, the latter set of statistics still indicates highly significant hindcast skill.

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干旱气象
2005年 第1期

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