中国城镇居民10年消费结构变化实证研究

Positive study of chinese urban residents′ consumption structure change during ten years′ period

通过运用扩展线性支出系统模型(ELES)对城镇居民边际消费倾向和需求收入弹性进行实证研究,得出我国城镇居民满足吃、穿为主的生存型消费需求阶段已经结束,逐步向以发展型和享受型阶段过渡.同时预测恩格尔系数会继续下降,高层次消费项目将成为新的消费增长点.最后针对我国城镇居民消费结构变化提出政策性建议.

Study of the consumption structure of Chinese urban residents plays an important role in satisfying consumption demand, improving consumption level, making macro-economy policy as well as performing operation management for enterprises. Chinese urban residents' consumption structure during ten years' period is analysed, the Engel coefficient is measured and by using extended linear expenditure system, an analysis and forecast of the marginal propensity to consume along with the income elasticity of demand are provided. On this basis, some countermeasures and suggestions are proposed.