中国消费者短视行为的理论与实证研究

A Theoretical and Empirical Test for Myopia of Chinese Consumers

借用并修改金蛋模型,以拟双曲形贴现效用函数和预算约束中的短期储蓄目标,刻画了中国消费者的短视行为。得出了中国消费者会在短视期内消费尽扣除短期储蓄目标外的所有资产,并根据当期收入水平和短期储蓄目标平滑消费的结论。通过实证检验,论证了我国消费者短视消费行为的存在,并大致确定了短视期的平均长度。

This paper establishes a model to analyze myopia of Chinese consumers who have hyperbolic discount functions and short-run saving targets by means of the method of Golden Eggs model. The model predicts that consumption tracks income and that consumers will consume all their assets except short-run saving targets in myopia periods. Moreover, the model suggests that Chinese consumers will smooth their consumption based on income and short-run saving targets. Finally, an empirical test supports the existence of myopia of Chinese consumers and finds the average length of a myopia period.