中国的膨胀型经济波动及成因

China’s Expansionary Economic Fluctuation and Its Contributing Factors

通过对中国1978年以来的经济波动过程分析可以看出,与1978年以前的经济波动不同,改革开放以后的经济波动表现为膨胀型经济波动。无论从总量上还是增长率方面,固定资产投资增长波动是GDP波动的主要原因,消费需求增长对GDP波动有“熨平”效应。旨在抑制经济膨胀的宏观政策,必须在控制固定资产投资规模和促进消费需求增长之间做出权衡。

This paper is a study and analysis of China's economic fluctuation since 1978. It comes to the conclusion that the economic fluctuation, unlike the case prior to 1978, has been expansionary ever since the implentation of the opening up and reform policy. A second conclusion is that the fixed capital investment (both in terms of aggregate fixed capital investment and growth rate) fluctuation is the main factor in incurring GDP fluctuation, while the total consumption has a 'deflating' effect on GDP fluctuation. Consequently, the government policies, which aim to restrain the economic inflation, have to maintain a tradeoff between restraining the growth of fixed capital investment and stimulating total consumption.