灰色系统模型在卫星钟差预报中的应用

Grey System Model for the Satellite Clock Error Predicting

分析了二次多项式模型在卫星钟差长期预报中的缺陷,依据灰色系统理论和卫星钟差的变化规律,以较少的观测样本建立了预报卫星钟差的灰色预测模型,并将其与二次多项式预测模型进行分析比较。计算结果表明,两者的短期预报精度基本相当,而灰色系统模型的长期预报精度要明显地优于二次多项式模型,更适合于实际应用。

The shortcomings of quadratic polynomial model are analyzed in secular predicting satellite clock error. Based on the gray system theory and changing law of clock error, the gray predicting model is established by making use of a few observation examples. Its result is compared with quadratic polynomial model. Calculating results show that the short-term predicting precision of the two models is almost same, but the gray predicting model remarkably improves the secular predicting accuracy of satellite clock error, so the gray predicting model is fitter to be used in practice.