动力气候模式预测系统业务化及其应用

RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL APPLICATION OF DYNAMICAL CLIMATE MODEL PREDICTION SYSTEM

动力气候模式是目前国际上开展气候预测的主要工具。经过 8年多的研制、发展和业务化过程 ,国家气候中心已建立起第一代动力气候模式预测业务系统 ,并以此为平台 ,形成了一套包括月、季节到年际时间尺度的动力模式预测业务。 2 0年历史回报试验和 1年多的试验性业务运行结果表明 ,该系统对东亚区域的季节预测具有较好的预测能力 ,其预测结果已经在实际业务中得到了应用 ,并成为我国短期气候预测业务的重要参考依据。该文是对该动力模式系统性能的介绍 ,也是对国家“九五”重中之重课题的加强课题“短期气候预测综合动力模式预测系统业务化”专题的总结汇报。

Dynamical climate model is a major tool for climate prediction in the world at present. After more than 8 years' researching and developing, the first generation of dynamical climate model prediction operation system has been established in National Climate Center (NCC), Chinese Meteorological Administration. And on the basis of this system, a series of short term climate prediction has been produced by dynamical climate model at timescale of monthly, seasonal and interannual and in operative mode. It is shown by the results from 20-year-hindcasting experiments and experimental routine operation of short term climate prediction since last spring that this system has the reasonable capability of seasonal prediction in East Asia and its products has been becoming an important reference in the NCC operation of short term climate prediction.