石家庄地区耕地与人口数量变化动态及其预测

Study on the dynamics of cultivated land and population and its prediction in Shijiazhuang municipality

分析石家庄各县市1986～2000年的人口与耕地统计资料,发现该地区耕地面积持续下降,人口数目逐年增加,人均耕地面积逐渐降低;耕地数量的变化还存在地区的差异,离市区远的地区,耕地变化速率相对较慢。通过灰色模型理论预测了该地区在今后15a内耕地面积和人口数量的变化趋势。

Through analyzing the statistic data of Shijiazhuang area from 1986 to 2000, it is discovered that the area of cultivated land has been descending, the population amount has been rising, and per capita cultivated land has been decreasing constantly. There exist differences among various counties, i.e., the further is the distance of a region from the urban district, the lower is the change rate of cultivated land area. The change of cultivated land and population in next 15 years is predicted by using the Grey Theory.