中国东北地区及不同典型下垫面的气温异常变化分析

An Analysis of Temperature Abnormal Change in Northeast China and Type Underlying Surface

利用6个代表站1905-2001年较长时期的月平均气温,对缺测年代的数据进行了插补,建立了东北地区近百年平均季、年气温序列。对所建温度序列与同一区域内26个代表站平均温度序列的近46年同期资料做了相关分析,检验了序列的代表性。在所建序列基础上,分析了东北百年气温的年代、年和季节等不同时间尺度变化特点和地域分布特征,采用谱分析方法探讨了序列的周期性变化特征,并采用Mann-Kendall和Yamamoto方法对经过滑动平均的气温序列进行了突变分析。结果表明,东北近百年年平均温度表现为明显的增暖趋势,但为起伏式增暖;冬季增温非常强烈,夏季在1995年以前不仅没有升温,反而有明显降温趋势,但1995年以后夏季气温明显升高,春秋季的升温趋势与冬季类似,但幅度小得多;在区域内,增温强度似乎并不随纬度增大,纬度较低的沈阳增温最强;三种典型下垫面中以山地的增温幅度最强;功率谱分析表明了百年气温变化的2.3年和4.2年的主周期,其中2.3年周期比较显著。

The air temperature data used for the study come from six weather stations in Northeast China from 1905 to 2001. These stations all have temperature observation records for about 100 years, which include Shenyang , Dalian, Yingkou, Changchun, Harbin and Qiqihar. The average temperature time series for the areas are obtained by simply averaging the six station values in the period. In order to check the representation of the series , correlativity between the six station time series and the twenty-six station time series is made, and it shows a very significant correlative coefficient. The temperature time series were further analyzed for the changes on varied time scales in the area. It is found that a marked warming occurred in the area over the past 100 years, with the wanning much more obvious in winter than other seasons. A slight cooling trend in summer can be detected, though temperature in warm season began to rise after 1995. Spectrum analysis indicates a 2.3-year period and a 4.2-year period for the average temperature series. In addition, climate jumps for annual mean temperature are also checked by applying the Mann-Kendall and Yamamoto methods, and two significant jumps in temperature time series have been detected in the beginning of 1920's and the late 1980's.