摘要
作者用直线回归和指数函数方程拟合和田地区的麻风患病率,并预测其流行趋势。所建方程为Y=3.031-0.033x和In Y=31.0439-0.3769x,综合分析表明指数函数方程拟合优度及预测效果好于直线回归方程,并推测和田地区的麻风可能在1995年被基本消灭。
Linear regression and exponential function equation were used to fit leprosy prevalence in Hetian Prefecture,Xinjiang,and to calculate trend of leprosy endemicity there.In the equation,Y=3.031-0.033X and In Y=31.0439-03769X.The results show that the fitting goodness and calculation effect of exponential function equation are better than those of linear regression.According to the calculation,leprosy would be basically eradicated by 1995 there.
