中国人均食用粮食消费量的时序预测

A Time Series Forecasting of Food-grain Consumption Per Capita in China

粮食消费预测是安排粮食生产、调整粮食种植结构、制定粮食安全和农业可持续发展战略的重要理论依据。利用粮食消费量与时间之间的相关关系, 采用SPSS程序包进行筛选, 建立我国人均食用粮食消费的时序预测模型。研究结果表明, 所建立的三个时序预测模型的拟合度等统计指标高度显著, 运用所建模型对所获资料进行的内推预测比较准确, 但外推预测结果因影响因素多, 其准确性有待时间和实际的检验。

Forecasting of grain consumption is important theoretical foundation for arranging grain production, adjusting grain plant structure, making strategy of grain security and agricultural sustainable development. Time series forecasting models of food-grain consumption per capita in China were scanned and selected by using SPSS, and were built based on the correlative relationship between quantity of consumption and time. Research results and statistical indexes indicated that the construction of models were successful, and the forecasting within the data obtained was relatively precise, whether the result of forecasting for the future was reliable or not, however, much depended on the influence of many external factors such as consumer's taste, grain price as well as test of the time and reality.