一类线性动态非均衡蛛网模型的稳定性分析

Stability Analysis of a Kind of Linear and Dynamic and Disequilibrium Cobweb Model

动态非均衡下蛛网模型的稳定性分析,对于解决诸如农产品等单商品市场价格波动一类的经济活动有着积极的意义。本文考虑到单商品的众多生产者在进行市场总产量和价格的预测中存在着博弈过程,将第t期的供给函数看成是第t-1期价格和第t-2期价格的线性函数,引入价格调节机制,对传统蛛网模型加以改进,并对改进后的模型进行了动态和稳定性分析,从而得到均衡价格存在的稳定性条件,有助于提高生产者对产品的价格和供给量的预测能力及风险管理水平。

The stability analyses of the cobweb model under the dynamic and disequilibrium condition,have postive meanings in solving the economic activity of the market prices fluctuation of single commodity, such as agricultural product, etc.This paper considers that the numberous producers of the single commodity have the course of playing game in carrying on the prediction of the total output and price of the market,and regards linear function of No.t-1 price and No.t-2 price as No.t supply function,and introduces the regulation mechanism of prices,and improves the traditional cobweb model,and finally has carried out the dynamic analysis and stability analysis of this model,thus the condition of stability under which equilibrium price exists is obtained.It contributes to improving producer's prediction ability and level of managing risk at the products