从操作工具看中国货币政策改革

China's Monetary Policy Reform: From the View of Operating Instruments

如何制约中央银行的通货膨胀倾向,提高货币政策的可信性,是现在货币政策研究的重要问题,本文提供的一个备选答案是引入由中央银行发行的价格指数类期货合约作为货币政策的一种新工具。本文在说明价格指数类期货合约的定价原理和均衡价格形成的基础上,分析了其对基础货币进而对价格水平的影响机制。文章认为价格指数类期货合约具有易操作性、独立性和内在稳定性,可以设计成为一种供中央银行选择的货币政策新型工具。

One important issue of the current monetary policy research is how to remove the inflation bias of monetary policy, and how to enhance the credibility of the monetary policy. This article provides a potential method, which is to introduce Price Index Quasi Futures Contract (PIQFC) as a new instrument of monetary policy. Firstly, the pricing principle and the formation of equilibrium price of PIQFC are explained. Then the mechanism of how PIQFC influences the basic currency and the price level is analyzed. Finally, the punishment mechanism and the signal function are investigated. It is found that PIQFC possesses good qualities in operation, independence, and internal stability, which, consequently, can make PIQFC a new alternative monetary policy instrument for central banks.