应用引力模型评判区域贸易安排与出口增长

RTA and China's Export Growth From the Perspective of Gravity Model

引力模型为有效促进参与区域贸易安排成员国的出口增长提供了有力证据。通过总量和产品类别的实证分析表明,区域贸易安排对不同产品类别的出口增长的影响效果并不一致。我国参与区域贸易安排的战略选择上,还需要将引力模型得出的贸易不足和贸易过度的结论,与出口比较优势和出口收益传导机制有机结合起来。

The gravity model has testified the judgment that participating in RTA will promote one country's trade potentials. This paper analyzed the different effects of RTA from the perspective of trade volume and product category. The author stressed that one country should combine the conclusion of trade shortage or trade overage based on the gravity model with the comparative advantage and channels of export income to better guide China's RTA strategy.