基于人工神经网络的黑龙江省农机总动力预测

Forecasting of Agricultural Machine Power of Heilongjiang Province Based on Artificial Nerve Network Model

黑龙江省农机总动力的建模和预测是制定黑龙江省农机发展计划的重要依据。为此,应用BP人工神经网络技术(BP-ANN)处理1980～1998年农机总动力数据,建立正确的预测模型。利用此模型预测出1999～2003年黑龙江省农机总动力数值,预测结果和实际结果有很好的一致性;同时,预测了2004～2006年黑龙江省农机总动力数值,为今后制定农机发展战略提供参考依据。

Making model and forecasting for agricultural machine power of Heilongjiang Province are important basis for laying down development plan of agricultural machine of my province. This paper presents an accurate model by dealing with data of agricultural machine power of Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 1998. Values of agricultural machine power of Heilongjiang Province from 1999 to 2003 are forecasted. The prediction values based on the model are in good agreement with the original values. Furthermore,the values from 2004 to 2006 are forecasted,these values provide referenced basis for laying down plan of agricultural machine in future.