气候变暖对甘肃农业的影响

Impact of Climate Warming on Agriculture in Gansu Province

应用甘肃省63个地面测站1961～2003年气温资料,对年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、≥0℃、≥10℃活动积温和<0℃负积温进行分析。结果表明,1987～2003年比1961～1986年的平均值明显增高,尤以最低气温增幅最大,甘肃省气候变暖主要来自最低气温升高的贡献。冬季升温幅度大于夏季,<0℃负积温绝对值明显减少。甘肃省20世纪80年代后期气候明显变暖,热量资源增加,喜温作物面积扩大,越冬作物种植区北界向北扩展,对牧区牲畜越冬度春有利。但由于水资源不足,气候变暖对甘肃农业的负面影响大于正面影响。

Based on temperatures of 171 observations from 1961 to 2003 in Gansu province, the year mean temperature, highest temperature, lowest temperature, accumulated temperature above 0℃,10℃, and negative accumulated temperature beneath 0℃ were collected to analyze. The results showed that year mean temperature of 1987~2003 was significantly higher than that of 1961~1986; especially the lowest temperature increment appeared markedly. The lowest temperature rising played a main effect on climate warming in Gansu province. Climate warming was more clearly in winter than in summer. The accumulated negative temperature reduced obviously. As the trends of climate changing has shown warming since late 1980s in Gansu province,thermal resource is increased, planting areas of heliophilous plants are expanded, the northern planting boundary of crop spreads further to north and it is beneficial to winter and spring animal. However, because of lack of water resources, Impacts of climate warming on agriculture is more negative then positive.