水库防洪预报调度风险分析研究

Risk analysis on reservoir regulation against forecasted floods

本文主要从设计角度对水库防洪预报调度的风险进行分析。首先进行风险识别,进而分析实施预报调度后风险的变化;其次给出了防洪预报调度的设计允许极限误差的定义以及水库和下游防洪危险度的定量化计算公式;最后论述了防洪预报调度风险分析方法。以碧流河水库为例,主要计算了不同极限指标控制下的水库设计允许极限漏报误差及不同起调水位与不同误差组合下的水库防洪风险度,以及下游设计允许空报误差,并进行了结果分析和讨论。

Due to inaccuracy of original data and forecasting errors of rainfall and flood flow and imperfect process in decision making on the real-time information, unavoidable risks would always occur during reservoir regulation against forecasted floods. The authors discussed the risk analysis of reservoir flood control regulation in terms of design aspect. The risk recognition was carried out and risk evolution during implementation of reservoir operation was analyzed. The allowable forecast error in design phase was defined and formulae for calculating the risk degrees were derived. Finally, the methodology for risk analysis was illustrated. Taking the Biliuhe Reservoir as an example, the allowable forecast errors and the corresponding risk degrees in design phase under different reservoir regimes and different error combinations were calculated. Based on the calculation, the allowable flood forecast error for downstream was obtained.