摘要
实物期权的定量分析起源于Black和Scholes(1973)、Merton(1973)关于金融期权定价的开创性工作。从此,许多其他的定价技术,例如格子分析方法(latticeapproach),数值近似法(numericalapproximations),动态规划(dynamicprogramming)和或有债权分析(contingentclaimsanalysis)广泛地运用于投资项目的评估。本文首先对金融期权和实物期权进行比较。进而对有关实物期权分析方法的缺陷以及对相关分析方法进行改进的文献进行回顾。并在此基础上指出了如何将博弈论融入实物期权理论的分析是实物期权理论进一步研究的方向。
Inspired by the seminal financial option pricing mode l by Black and Scholes(1973)Merton(1973), Quantitative analysis of the mater ial object option has developed rapidly. From then, lots of other pricing techno logy widely applies to assess the investment project, such as lattice approach, numerical approximations,dynamic programming and contingent claims analysis. Th is paper firstly analyzed the difference between financial options and real opti ons. Secondly we discussed the underlying pitfalls of the real options analytica l method, and reviewed the documents on improvement of the relevant analytical m ethod. Based the above analysis, the author points out the Direction of the real options theory studies further, which is how to incorporate the game theory int o the real options theory.
出处
《预测》
CSSCI
2005年第3期31-36,共6页
Forecasting
关键词
实物期权
期权定价
动态规划
或有债权分析
博弈论
real options
option pricing
dynamic programming
con tingent claims analysis
game theory