中国中部地区两县既往有偿献血人群艾滋病回顾性队列研究

A retrospective cohort study on the natural history of human immunodeficiency virus among formal plasma donors in central China

目的研究既往有偿采供血人群艾滋病感染者的发病死亡规律。方法采用回顾性队列研究的方法,对178例确认的通过献血(浆)感染艾滋病病毒(HIV)的感染者进行回顾性调查,利用KaplanMeier乘积极限法计算平均潜伏期和生存时间及其分布。结果HIV感染者的平均潜伏期为8.31年(95%CI:8.04～8.58)(KaplanMeier法)。感染后艾滋病总发病率为6.41/100人年。艾滋病发病后平均生存时间为9.90个月(95%CI:8.20～11.60)(KaplanMeier法)。结论研究发现既往有偿采供血人群HIV感染者的平均潜伏期短于联合国艾滋病规划署(UNAIDS)研究结果(9.5年);艾滋病发病率在感染后6年内均显著低于UNAIDS研究结果,第7年后高于UNAIDS结果。感染者发病后平均生存时间短于UNAIDS研究结果。

Objective To study the time span from human immunodeficiency virus(HIV) infection to full bloom AIDS and to death. Methods Among formal plasma donors(FPD) from 2 counties in central China,178 HIV cases were confirmed by western blot method but received no ARV treatment under a retrospective cohort study. Data on personal information, history on plasma donation, as well as dates regarding HIV diagnostic confirmation, onset of AIDS and death was collected through reviewing laboratory and medical records thus the course of disease for each case was identified. Incubation and survival time were calculated, using Kaplan-Meier method. Results The incubation period was 8.31 years on average(95% CI : 8.04- 8.58 years). The cumulative incidence rate of AIDS was 6.41/ 100 person-years after HIV infection. The survival time was 9.90 (95% CI : 8.20- 11.60 ) months after the onset of AIDS. Conclusion According to the findings from this study, the average incubation was shorter than 9.5 years which was reported by UNAIDS. Comparing with figures that had been reported by UNAIDS, AIDS incidence rate among this population was lower within 6 years but higher since the 7th year on after being infected but the survival time was shorter.