中国股市与宏观经济形势的背离及原因分析

Analysis on the Abnormal Relation between Stock Market and Macroeconomy

一般而言,经济波动与证券市场波动紧密联系,股市常被称为国民经济的“晴雨表”,但这一理论是建立在一定假设前提基础上的。通过分析中国股市波动和整个宏观经济波动的关系,指出造成中国股市与宏观经济周期背离的原因,并在最后提出了该如何最大限度发挥股市的功能作用,使股市逐步成为观察中国经济运行的“晴雨表”,为宏观经济的稳定发展服务。

The relationship between the economy and the national stock market is inseparable. Stock market is generally referred as barometer of national economy which is not always true in different condition. The paper points out the reason why the stock market deviated from macro economy, based on the analysis of fluctuation in stock market and economy cycle. Some advices on how to develop stock market were presented.