基于DE-APIOBPCS策略的牛鞭效应和库存方差

Bullwhip Effect and Inventory Variance Based DE-APIOBPCS Policy

本文就一般补充规则即APIOBPCS策略,从控制理论的角度,推导出牛鞭效应的一个分析表达式,由该式知道,采用增大预测平均时间和库存差异(或者渠道差异)增益以及减少生产提前期的控制手段,可以减少牛鞭效应,本文还推导出库存方差的一个分析表达式,把它与牛鞭效应分析表达式一起使用时,就两种方差之间一系列权重值,讨论了牛鞭效应和库存方差之间的平衡,基于这种平衡,生产和库存控制者可以设计一些恰当的供应链系统。

From a control theory perspective,based on a generic replenishment rule that is APIOBPCS policy,the paper derives an analytical expression for bullwhip effect.It clearly shows that bullwhip effect can be reduced by increasing gain of the discrepancy in the inventory position and pipeline position,and by increasing the average age of the forecast and reducing the production lead-time.Then this paper also derives an analytical expression for the variance of inventory position.When this analytical expression is applied together with the bullwhip expression,the balance between both bullwhip effect and inventory variance for a range of weightings is discussed.According to these balances,the production and inventory controllers can design suitable supply chain (system.)