关于地震预报研究发展战略的思考

Thoughts About Development Strategy of Earthquake Prediction Research

近年来国际地震学界在地震孕育过程、发生机制的认识方面取得了一系列突破性的进展,相应地对于地震预报的研究、特别是基于物理模型的地震预报研究又向前迈进了一步。我们在融和国际最新研究成果从事地震预报研究工作中,建议重点注意①加强基于物理机制的地震预报研究;②现象学研究中注重系统性和定量化。

During recent years a series of break-throughs have been achieved in understand ing seismogenic processes and mechanisms by the seismological research community worldwide, which have helped farther advancement of earthquake prediction resea rch, particularly for prediction based on modeling of physical mechanisms of ear thquakes. To incorporate these most resent research developments in our earthqu ake prediction research we propose to focus more on: ① the understanding of phy sical mechanisms of earthquake processes, and ② the integrity of data and compr ehensive and quantitative modeling in phenomenology research.