“边研究、边预报”利弊分析与发展建议

Analyses of advantages and disadvantages of prediction while researching and some suggestions for advancing study on earthquake prediction

鉴于中国与美国、日本、俄罗斯等主要地震国家过去三四十年地震预报研究工作的科学思路和技术途径比较接近,主要区别是,中国始终坚持“边研究、边预报”,而其他国家,尤其是西方国家以科学研究为主,本文着重分析了“边研究、边预报”的必要性、优越性与带来的差距,并提出了3点发展建议。

Because the main differences for earthquake prediction between China and foreign countries such as U.S.A., Japan, and Russia et al. in past 40 years were that C hinese earthquake predictions were always in progress according to policies of p rediction while researching, while U. S. A., Japan, and Russia et al. paid more attention to basic research. Necessity and advantages of prediction while resear ching and its disadvantages were analysed and some suggestions were put forward in this paper.