中国地震预报发展规划应突出探索性和实验性

The Project of Chinese Earthquake Prediction Development Should High Regard for Exploration and Experimentation

作者提出中国地震预报发展规划在指导思想上应突出探索性和实验性,探索内容应包括地壳运动状态(方向、速率、范围及机理);地壳应力集中点(应力集中点数量、各点应力积累速度、范围、持续时间及其与震级的相关关系,应力集中点的演化与区内地震活动、前兆异常的相关关系);震源应力演化产生的应力扰动所能影响的范围及其量级;前兆观测仪器和预报判据等。探索的技术路线作者提出短临预报要抓大放小,主要抓7级左右大震的监测预报,对5～6级地震采取抗震技术措施进行预防;对地壳运动状态及应力集中点的研究采取GPS大地形变、绝对应力测量等方法进行长时间短周期的综合观测。抓住预报实验区、重点危险区及余震区等现场不放,进行以上述内容为主的实验观测。

The author indicated the project of Chinese earthquake prediction development sh ould highly regard for exploration and experimentation. The exploration should i nclude the state of crustal movement (direction, velocity, range and mechanism), the focus of crustal stress (the number of focus, the velocity of stress accumu lated, range, duration, the correlations between magnitude and its, the correlat ions between evolvement of the focus and seismicity and precursor abnormity), th e range and scalar of the stress disturb produced by evolvement of epicenter str ess, precursory observational instrument and prediction criterion etc. For the g roping technique the author indicated we should grasp large earthquake and negle ct the small for short term prediction. We should grasp monitor and prediction f or magnitude about 7 earthquakes; adopt aseismatic measure for magnitude 5 or 6. We should make a long time and short period observation to study the state of c rustal movement and the focus of crustal stress through GPS, absolute stress mea sure and so on. We should grasp the locale of earthquake such as prediction prov ing ground, main dangerous region and aftershock area; make experimentation and observation based above.