走中西两种文化优势融合道路争取实现地震预报的突破性进展

Epoch-making Breakthrough of Earthquake Forecast Research with the Blend of Predominance of Sinic and Occidental Culture

地震预报作为最典型的复杂系统,需要转变科学思维模式,运用中国传统文化的整体思维,结合现代科技,全方位寻找地震信息。指出一些中国科学家在中西两种文化的结合方面,已得到众多的临震预测手段,并在预测实践中取得不同程度的成效。但他们在临震三要素上各有优势和劣势,任一手段均不可包打天下。需要取其各自的优势,它将们集中起来,进行攻关。同时加强其机理研究,开发新的临震预测手段。最后建议围绕2008年奥运会地震安全保障,实施一个首都圈临震预报攻关的科学实验计划,争取首都圈的临震预报首先获得突破性进展。

Earthquake forecast is a typical complicated system. It need us change scientifi c thinking model, and use the whole view thinking of Chinese traditional culture to combine the modern technologies, then look for the earthquake information in many different ways. Some Chinese scientists combine Sinic and occidental cultu re, and find many methods of impend earthquake prediction. These already have ce rtain good result in practice. But they have respective advantage shortage in di fferent earthquake factors. There is no one omnipotent method. So we must use th eir respective advantage, and concentrate them to make further research especial ly on the mechanism. In this way, we could get new method of impend earthquake p rediction. At last we advise to set up a capital impend earthquake prediction pl an to protect Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, and make a epoch-making breakthrough.