利用构造性仿真评估导弹精度

Evaluation of the Missile Precision by Using the Construction Simulation

通过对导弹落点散布的构造性仿真获得了落点(均值与方差)的验前分布参数,通过与现场试验数据的相容性检验获得了验前信息的可信度,在考虑验前信息可信度的情况下获得了命中点的均值与方差的验后Bayes估计。算例表明该方法对于仿真信息的应用合理可信,考虑可信度下的Bayes估计具有较好的置信度。

The prior distribution parameters of the falling points are obtained by using the construction simulation, then the credibility of the prior information is acquired by consistent test. The Bayesian estimations of the mean and variance of the falling points are obtained by considering the credibility of the prior information. An example validates that it is successful to use the simulation information, and Bayesian estimation on considering the credibility has a better confidence level.