信念、反馈效应与博弈均衡:房地产投机泡沫形成的一个博弈论解释

Belief,Feedback Effect and Game Equilibrium:A Game Theory Analysis of the Speculative Bubble of Real Estate

本文在一个信息不对称框架下分析了市场繁荣和非理性繁荣时期开发商和置业者的战略选择,认为在信念和反馈效应的作用下,开发商和置业者之间的互动行为将导致房地产价格不断变化。只有当置业者认为市场处于一种非理性繁荣时,房地产市场中才不会出现跟风和正反馈行为,才会抑止房地产投机泡沫的产生。其他情况下,策略信念的临界值都由对方的信念和收益决定。在反馈效应的作用下,他们的行动将导致市场投机行为迅速蔓延,最终形成房地产泡沫。

Based on an asymmetry information game model, this paper analyzes the strategic choices made by real estate developers and investors of the real estate. Under the influenceof belief and feedback effect, the mutual actions between real estate developers and investors of the real estate will lead to price change of real estate. When investors of the real estate anticipate that market is in non-rational boom, herd behavior and positive feedback actionwill not emerge and speculative bubble of real estate can not come into being. Under the influenceof feedback effect, their actions will induce speculative behaviors spread quickly and form bubble of real estate at last.