什么推动了房价的上涨:来自上海房地产市场的证据

What Pushes up the House Price:Evidence From Shanghai

本文采用单位根检验、EG两步法(EngleandGranger,1987)和VAR模型(Sims,1980)对上海房地产市场2000年7月到2004年3月的月度数据进行分析。结果发现,影响中房上海综合指数变动的主要因素有房地产投资占固定资产投资的比重、人均可支配收入、空置面积的变化率,并且上房指数滞后一期对其自身走势也有很大影响。而人均GDP、人均消费支出等变量对房价的影响不显著。另外,一些政策如“取消购房契税补贴”和“暂停购房抵扣个人所得税”对房价的攀升起到抑制作用,但贷款利率下调影响不明显。我们还发现,世博会申办成功对上海房市有明显的推动作用。

We analyzed the monthly real estate index of Shanghai from July 2000 to March 2004 through unit root test, EG two-|step standard and VAR model. We found the main determinants which affect the China Real Estate Index of Shanghai(CREISS) are the ratio of real estate investment to fixed asset investment, PDI, variability of vacancy ratio. And one-period delay of CREISS also has large impact. However, other factors such as GDP per capita and consumption-expenditure ratio have no distinctive impact on CREISS. Furthermore, some policy such as “cancellation of taxation in deeds for housing”, “suspension of individual income tax credit for housing”hold down the rising of the real estate price. The descent of loan interest has no important effect on CREISS. Otherwise, the success of Centennial International Exposition application in Shanghai has positive effect on the real estate price of Shanghai.