中国省际人口迁移对区域经济发展作用关系之研究

Study on Inter-Provincial Migration's Influence on Regional Economy Development in China

文章在初步建立区分东部地带和中西部地带的省际人口迁移与区域经济发展作用关系统一假设模型的基础上,主要根据新古典经济增长理论及舒尔茨人力资本理论,构造了包括省际迁移劳动力的C -D生产函数,对中国改革开放以来省际人口迁移对1 990年代区域经济发展的作用关系及贡献大小进行了比较深入地考察分析。研究发现:与根据时间系列考察得知的中国省际人口迁移与经济发展的相互作用、互动发展关系一样,改革开放以来中国省际人口迁移对区域经济发展的作用关系也具有明显的同步即时效应和异时累积效应,而且异时累积效应也同样相对更强一些;东部地带1 990年代的省际人口迁移对同期区域经济发展的同步即时效应和异时累积效应,都表现为显著的正向促进作用,而中西部地带两者的作用关系前期呈负向作用、后期则转为正向影响;对全国各省区的考察显示,1 995 -2 0 0 0年间的省际人口迁移对东部地带和中西部地带区域经济的发展都表现出比较密切的正向作用关系;从控制和缩小区域经济发展的东西差异来看,目前这种以非“常住”人口流动为主体的省际人口迁移模式还有一定的“合理性”。

Based on the hypothetic model of interaction between inter-provincial migration and regional economy development, which distinguishes East Region and Middle-west Region, this paper constructs a “Cobb-Douglas” production function including inter-provincial migration according to the neoclassic growth theory and Schultz's human capital theory, analyzing the influence and contribution of inter-provincial migration since the reform of China upon the regional economy development in 1990's. This research finds that: similar to the interaction relationship between them from the viewpoint of time series analysis, the influence of inter-provincial migration on economy development significantly reveals synchronous instantaneous effect and asynchronous cumulate effect, the latter of which is much more intense. The paper also shows that inter-provincial migration's synchronous instantaneous effect and asynchronous cumulate effect upon regional economy development represented a positive boost in 1990's of East Region, whereas these effects represented a negative influence in early 1990's of Middle-west Region and a positive influence in later 1990's. The inter-provincial migration during 1996—2000 exhibited a close positive relationship to all regions' economy development. It seems to be a reasonable pattern that most of inter-provincial migration are non-residents, in order to control and reduce the difference between East Region and West Region.