山区铁路沿线暴雨泥石流预报的研究

Results of Study on the Prediction of Rainstorm Debris Flow Along Montane Railways

泥石流发生是灾害性降雨过程和流域内不稳定的松散物产状与制约水、沙输移的河沟条件所决定的。解决泥石流预报中的时、空因素，可以通过每小时接收卫星云图的信息分析决定。对某一流域内能否发生泥石流的预报，则由降雨条件函数和地面环境动态函数组合的量级决定。本研究对铁路３个预报试验区、黄河水利委员会３个水土保持科学试验站的大量观测试验资料进行了统计分析，完善了“山区铁路暴雨泥石流中短期预报的研究”［１］中提出的泥石流组合预报模式；通过统计分析，建立了泥石流预报诸环节中各项影响因素的限界值划分标准和量化分级方法。

Debris flow occurrence is determined by the following factrs:calamitous rains-torm,unstable state of loose material in the valley and conditions restricting water-sandmovement.The time-space factor in debris flow prediction can be obtained by analyzing thehourly satellite cloud charts.For a specific area debris flow can be predicted by the combina-tion of precipitation function with dynamic ground environment function.In the paper,the de-bris flow prediction model,mentioned in“The Study For Rainstorm Debris Flow Short-TermPrediction Along Mountain District Railway”,has been perfected based on statistical analysisof data from three railway prediction experimental stations and three water-soil conservationexperimental station under the Yellow River Conservancy Commission,Based on the analys-is,the differentiation and numeration standards for the critical values of contributing factorsin debris flow prediction have been established.