摘要
工程施工中应用柔性网络计算机仿真突破了传统的PERT只考虑单一关键线路的限制以及工序的持续时间均服从β分布的假定,也使得仿真工期与关键线路都具有了不确定性.一次仿真结果只相当于对系统模型的一次抽样,缺乏代表性.将网络计划仿真技术与风险分析技术结合起来,采用统计分析的方法确定仿真运行次数,对实际系统大量的动态仿真工期进行完工概率与风险分析,用"工序关键度"表征关键线路的概率分布结果,能够较好的描述施工进度计划的不确定性,为施工管理与决策提供更多的信息.
With the computer simulation for engineering construction based on flexible network, a breakthrough is made on the limitation of conventional PERT network planning which considers only single critical path and assumes that the duration of every activity conforms to beta distribution. Thus the simulation duration and critical path are not constant and each simulation result can only be regarded as a sample of the system model. Combining network planning simulation techniques and risk analysis, methods for counting the simulation running times and calculating completion probability or schedule risk are proposed. Besides, 'activity critical index' is used to reflect the distribution of critical path. The uncertainty of construction scheduling planning is better described and more information about construction management is provided.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第2期107-112,共6页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金(50479048)高等学校优秀青年教师教学科研奖励计划(200166)高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20030056055)
关键词
不确定性分析
柔性网络仿真
施工进度计划
完工概率
工序关键度
uncertainty analysis
flexible network simulation
construction scheduling
completion probability
activity critical index
