基于FTA油气长输管道失效的模糊综合评价方法研究

Reasearch on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Oil & Gas Pipeline Failure Based on Fault Tree Analysis

介绍了由故障树分析和模糊综合评价相结合的油气长输管道失效的研究方法.故障树分析方法能找出影响油气长输管道失效的共性因素,但较难分析实际运行管道存在的个性因素和不确定的因素(即模糊因素).文中在故障树方法所提供的评价因素集和权重集的基础上,利用模糊综合评价方法对油气长输管道失效进行更为客观的评价.以某输油管道为例列举了该方法的步骤,计算结果表明FTA和模糊综合评价的集成方法合理、易于工程应用,评估结果更符合客观实际.

The combination method of fault tree analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was proposed to make research of oil&gas pipeline failure. The common factors influencing oil& gas pipeline failure could be determined with fault tree analysis. However, the practical operated oil&gas pipelines often have some individual fators and uncertain ones (fuzzy ones). Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method could evaluate objectively based on evaluated factor sets and weight sets provided by fault tree analysis. The new model steps were listed by taking the example of oil&gas pipeline failure. The result indicates that the method makes full use of their advantages and controls their disadvantages, and is feasible to evaluate the oil&. gas pipeline failure.