中国房地产市场过热与风险预警

The Overheated Estate Market and the Pre-warning System

从消费与投资两方面来说,1998年以来中国房地产市场的快速发展仅是以往“存量需求”的释放,而不是潜在需求真正地转化为有效需求。这一过程又主要依赖于银行信贷的支撑和代际收益的转移,这自然导致了中国房地产市场的虚假繁荣和价值的严重高估,造成房地产市场资产价格与价值的严重背离和房地产泡沫的出现。面对中国房地产价格快速飚升的威胁,为了避免房地产价格波动影响金融稳定以及国内经济的未来发展,首先要从金融体系的稳定性入手,建立房地产价格失衡预警指标体系、建立金融体系与宏观经济失衡的预警指标并提高金融机构风险测量能力。同时政府要在土地政策、信贷政策、税收政策和住房政策等方面采取积极的应对措施。

Judging by both consumption and investment, Chinese real estate market's boom since 1998 is a release of stock demand' rather than the conversion from potential demand to effective demand. Moreover, release of stock demand basically relies on bank credit and the return movement between generations, which results in fake prosperity and over-valued price. As a result, market price deviates severely from the real value, and then the real estate bubbles come in. Faced with rapid increase of the market price, we argue that, for the sake of financial stability, pre-warning index system on market price should be built in addition to pre-warning index system on financial system and macro-economy. Furthermore, financial institution should develop risk measure ability, and government should take measures to improve the land, credit, tax and housing policy.