海岸带脆弱性评估方法研究进展

Risk and Safety Evaluation Methodologies for Coastal Systems: a Review

海岸带脆弱性源于气候变化、海平面上升、人类活动的共同作用,而海岸带脆弱性评估的误差主要是来自海岸环境演化预案和社会经济发展预案的不确定性。为了提高评估精度,应确定海岸系统内、外部驱动力及其关键变量,研究自然和人类活动共同作用下的海岸系统演化过程、海岸系统风险发生的机制、以及海岸系统承载力和阈值,通过遥感和地理信息系统技术集成,建立适用的预案,用于脆弱性综合评估。

Coastal vulnerability is associated with the combined effect of climate change, sea level rise and anthropogenic activities. Likewise, errors in any evaluation for coastal risk and safety are originated from the uncertainty in the formulation of the scenarios about future coastal evolution and societal changes. In order to enhance the applicability of the risk-safety evaluation techniques, it is important to determine the key variables that control the coastal system behaviour, to understand the processes of coastal evolution in response to natural and human forcing, and to identify the mechanisms for the vulnerability and the thresholds of the coastal system. On such a basis, remote sensing and geographic information system techniques can be applied to generate suitable scenarios for vulnerability evaluations.