芳烃市场一年回顾与展望

Review of the Aromatics Market in 2004 and its Prospects in 2005

2004年国内外芳烃市场价格整体呈现“倒V”型走势,市场价格出现以下特点:芳烃价格走势与原油、石脑油价格走势相关性加强;苯、甲苯、二甲苯价差拉大;芳烃内外盘价格趋于一致。支撑2004年芳烃市场价格的主要因素是国际原油和石脑油价格不断上涨;芳烃生产装置故障频繁导致供应缺口增大;下游需求强劲,资源供不应求以及芳烃替代品增多。展望2005年,宏观经济的平衡发展、世界原油和原料油价格高位震荡、下游需求不断增长、国内石脑油作价与国际市场接轨都将成为支撑国内芳烃价格高企的因素。同时,石脑油原料不足以及装置工艺设备老化等因素也将影响国内芳烃产能的正常发挥。预计2005年芳烃价格的波动幅度比上年将略有缩小,市场行情将在较高价格平台进行箱体震荡。

The aromatics market price showed a reversed V- shaped trend of development in the domestic and overseas markets in 2004, with prices of aromatics, crude oil and naphtha rising, while larger price differences were emerging among benzene, toluene and xylene and while the prices of aromatics at domestic and world markets approached similar levels. The major factors bolstering the aromatics market price in 2004 are a) sustained hikes in the price of crude oil and naphtha in the international oil market; b) the increase in the gap between aromatics supply and demand as a result of frequent breakdown in aromatics production facilities; and c) robust downstream demand, undersupplied resources and the increase in the number of aromatics substitutes. In 2005, the balanced macro economic development, coupled with the fluctuations of crude oil and raw oil at high levels in the international market, increased downstream demand and the convergence of domestic and overseas naphtha prices, will emerge as the leading factors bolstering the high price of aromatics products in China. Meanwhile, the lack of naphtha raw materials and the obsoleteness of production facilities and equipment will also affect China's aromatics production capacity. One estimates that the fluctuation in the aromatics price will be smaller in 2005, but it will keep fluctuating at a high rate, as it did in 2004.