西方通货膨胀目标制的实证分析及对我国的启示

An Empirical Analysis on Inflation Targeting in Western Countries and the Enlightenment to Our Country

通货膨胀目标制是一个新兴的货币政策框架。通过分析两组西方国家利率、通货膨胀率和产出缺口的变动,发现中央银行实行通货膨胀目标制可以降低利率和通货膨胀率的短期波动。同时,泰勒规则值分析表明通货膨胀目标制使中央银行对产出和通货膨胀的反应发生了改变。实证结果对我国的货币政策中介目标向通货膨胀目标制过渡有重大启示。

Inflation targeting is a new monetary policy frame. Analyzing the volatility of inflation, output gap as well as interest rate of two groups of western countries, we know that IT has made Central Bank reduce the short-term volatility of interest rate and core inflation rate. The analysis made by Taylor rules indicates that inflation targeting makes the central bank to change in the reaction of output and inflation. The results has enlighted us on the transition from our country's intermediary goal to Inflation Targeting.