新经济地理学模型的政策含义及其对中国的启示

The Policy Implication of New Economic Geography Models and Its Meanings to China Regional Policies

新经济地理学自1990年诞生至今获得了长足进展,然而对新经济地理学模型的实证研究以及相关的政策分析还很少,已有的研究主要针对特定的经济背景和经济结构。该文探讨一般意义上新经济地理学模型所体现的政策含义,包含政策的区域附带效应、门槛效应、地区滞后效应、非线性效应、选择效应和协作效应。这些效应对我国的一些区域政策给以启示。在"西部大开发"方面,政策介入的地区滞后效应可能会使"西部大开发"战略的实施效果降低;从基础设施建设方面看,地区间交易条件的改善并非单一的效果,交易条件改善对落后地区可能不利;从区域壁垒的角度看,欠发达地区建立的区域壁垒有其理性成分;"预期实现效应"在一定程度上为"地方营销"的实践提供了理论支持;在劳动力流动方面,户籍制度以及相应的制度安排可能产生政策的区域附带效应,从而导致区域差异在一定程度上的强化。最后给出政策含义的未来研究方向。

From the beginning of 1990s to now,although New Economic Geography has been developed in many aspects,empirical researches and policy analyses based on new economic geography models are still very scarce.Literatures about these aspects mainly pay attention to special economic background and economic structure.This paper presents many policy implications inspired from new economic geography models in the general sense.These policy implications include regional side-effects,threshold effects,locational hysteresis,general non-linear effects,selection effects and coordination effects.According to these effects,China regional policies that have been implemented in these years are rethought.In the regional disparity aspect,locational hysteresis effects tell us that the result of Great Exploitation of West China may not realize our anticipation.In construction of infrastructure aspect,improvement of transportation in developing regions may not benefit to them in a certain period.In regional obstacle aspect,regional obstacle established by lag regions may be reasonable to them.Coordination effects support the`Location Marketing ' theories in a certain extent.In labor migration aspect,household registration system and related employment and social-welfare systems may result in regional side-effects of policy intervening.Regional disparity may be strengthened by this effect in a certain degree.At last,the paper presents two future research aspects.