摘要
阐述了PERT基于概率的正态分布理论,对于工程项目中的作业完成时间按三种不同情况进行估计:乐观时间、最可能时间、悲观时间,并假定这三个估计服从正态分布;并结合案例计算导出网络工程项目完成计划工期的概率方法。且分析论证了项目工期具有不可压缩性的最小周期的客观规律以及对项目计划的指导意义。
This paper expounds PERT based on the normal distribution theory of probability.The time that is finished in the homework of the engineering project is estimated, according to three kinds of methods,optmistic time, possible time,and pessimism time;sopposing that they satisfy the normal distribution.It derives the pro-(bability) methnod for the network project finishment time from some examples, and analyzes and demenstrats the objective law of mininum period in which project time has the periods that does not compress.This method has a guide meaning to the project.
出处
《信息技术》
2005年第4期42-44,共3页
Information Technology
关键词
项目计划
数学期望
方差
决策
project plan
mathematics expectation
square difference
decision-making
