摘要
允许风险分析方法体现了"以人为本"的防洪理念。按照防洪工程漫顶失事的逻辑过程提出了防洪风险率的定量计算方法,引入了人员伤亡预测的经验公式,讨论了制定允许风险标准问题。在此基础上,应用允许风险分析方法,定量计算骆马湖的防洪风险,对骆马湖防洪安全决策进行了评价,分析了建立洪水预警系统提高防洪安全的必要性和可行性。
The tolerance risk analysis method is based on the idea of putting the safety of people as the most important thing. According to the lgic process of overtopping of flood defense projects a quantitative calculation method for flood prevention risk ratio is proposed and an empirical equation for predicting loss of lives is deduced. The tolerance risk criterion is discussed. The proposed method is applied to quantitatively calculate the flood defense risk of Luoma Lake, and the corresponding decision-making of flood prevention safety is evaluated. Finally, the feasibility of flood forecast system for improving the flood prevention safety is analyzed.
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第5期618-623,共6页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
基金
水利部科技创新项目(SCX2002 06)
关键词
允许风险分析
防洪风险率
生命损失
防洪决策
tolerance risk analysis
flood prevention risk ratio
loss of lives
decision-making of flood prevention
