基于OLR的热带气旋移向预报方法研究

AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE PREDICTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING DIRECTION BASED ON OLR DATA

运用GMS-5气象卫星的OLR资料,研究了2001～2002年6月10日～8月10日西北太平洋上15个热带气旋的移动方向。选取多个OLR特征值因子及热带气旋中心最低海平面气压,结合《热带气旋年鉴》资料,采用统计回归的方法,得到热带气旋未来6、12、24小时移向的客观预报算式,其结果与年鉴中移向之间的复相关系数分别达到0.954、0.945、0.914。用预留的2001年6号台风作检验,结果很好。该方法可在日常的业务预报中试用,有助于提高热带气旋移向的预报水平,尤其是对移向突变的热带气旋具有较强的预报能力。

An objective technique of Tropical Cyclone (TC) moving direction prediction for the Northwestern Pacific Ocean during 2001～2002 is studied using GMS-5 Outing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data. Three formulae used to predict TC moving direction in 6, 12 and 24 hours, respectively, have been obtained based on the multiple linear regression framework and some regression factors including several kinds of OLR characteristic values and the minimum sea level pressure of tropical cyclone center. The multiple correlation coefficients of the statistical analysis using the information of TCs in The Tropical Cyclone Yearbook to validate the satellite-based prediction are 0.954、0.945、0.914 respectively. The results are satisfied through checking one of the TCs during 2001.The techniques could be applied in future operation and would contribute to the improvement of TC movement prediction, especially when there is a sudden change in TC moving direction, and of forecasting and warning capability.