马尔柯夫模型在土地利用结构预测中的应用——以南昌市为例

The Application of Markov Method in the Prediction of Land Use Structure——A Case Study in Nanchang City

以南昌市为例,定量分析了土地利用动态变化过程以及土地利用各类型之间的相互转化情况,在此基础上,求得研究区土地利用变化的转移矩阵,据此分析南昌市1998-2001年间土地利用变化的空间过程。同时运用马尔柯夫模型,对土地利用动态变化及演变趋势预测进行了分析,从达到全面把握城市土地变化规律的目的。

Taking Nanchang as an example,the process of the land use development and the situation of all the cate- gories of the land use transformation are quantitatively analyzed.It is feasible to calculate the transformation matrix of land use showing spatial pattern of lad use distribution in unit of image pixel,which revealed the city's spatial process from 1998 to 2001.Moreover,the land use development and the variation tendency are analyzed and predic- ted by using development degree of the land use and the model of Markov process.