从国际收支结构审视我国引资战略的调整

From the Perspective of Balance of Payment:FDI Strategy Adjustment in China

自20世纪90年代以来,我国的国际收支几乎持续保持经常项目和资本项目的双顺差态势。按照“两缺口”模型,经常项目顺差说明中国没有引资的必要,但中国目前却成为世界最大的外商直接投资接受国,同时又跻身于资本净输出国的行列。本文探讨了中国国际收支结构和引资之间的悖论,并对中国国际收支结构能否持续进行了实证分析,提出中国应在外商直接投资的结构、形式和政策上作战略调整,并实现国际收支结构的合理转型。

China's balance of payment has almost kept surplus in both current and capital account since 1990’s.According to the model of‘double gap’,the fact of surplus in current account shows it is unnecessary to receive FDI in China. However,at present,China has become the biggest country in receiving FDI and turned it into the net export capital country.From the perspective of‘double gap’model and the evolving theory of balance of payment,the paper disucsses incompatible relation between China's balance of payment and FDI and analyses the possibility of persistence in China's current balance of payment.In conclusion,China should strategically adjust its structure,form and policy about FDI and realize preferable trarnsition in balance of payment.