安徽省及邻区地震预报方案的研究

RESEARCH ON EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION PROGRAM IN AND AROUND ANHUI PROVINCE

本文根据华东地区发生的六次中强震震例总结和多年预报工作的经验,给出了在中期和短临阶段的一些预报成功率相对较高的预报判据,并且将专家系统技术中的不精确推理方法引入到地震预报工作中,提出了一种计算发震综合信度的方法。 最后给出了华东地区估计未来可能发生的地震的“三要素”的一些主要方法。

This paper gives some predicting criteria with higher successful predicting rate in the intermediate and short-impending stage according to the six cases occurring in the East China and many years' prediction experience.The inaccurate reasoning' method in the expert system is introduced into the earthquake prediction work and put forward a method of calculation causative comprehensive certainty factor.Finally, we give the main method of estimating the 'three elements' of earthquakes which might probably occur in future in East China.