陕西关中地区水资源—社会经济系统时空协同分析

Spatiotemporal Coupling Analysis on Water System and Social Economical System in Guanzhong Region of Shaanxi Province

以系统动力学模型为依据,根据渭河流域生产系统、生活系统和水资源系统相互作用机理,在满足一定程度的河道生态环境用水的情况下,建立关中地区社会经济发展与水资源关系模型;根据不同的发展目标和政策条件,分别运行高速发展方案(HD)、协调发展方案(CD)和调水发展方案(MD)。认为MD方案是实现关中地区水资源与社会经济系统协调发展的最佳途径;现有(含规划)的引水工程的数量不能完全满足未来社会经济发展的要求,应规划建设新的引水工程,并需要提前完工投入使用。

<Abstrcat> Base on System Dynamic Model, the interaction of production-living system, and meeting the water demand of riverway ecosystem to some degree, the Spatiotemporal Coupling Formula of Water System and Social Economical System is put forward. According different develop goal and policy condition, runs economy high-speed develop model(HD), water-economy coordinated developing model(CD), water-moved develop model(MD) separately. MD is the best way to resolve water resource and social economical system problem in Guanzhong region. At present, the amount of water that moving from other zone can not reach the demand of economy development completely in the future. Planning more water-transportation projects is necessary and makes it works before the schedule.