2004年中国石油需求分析及2005年展望

Analysis of China's Oil Demand in 2004 and Outlook for 2005

2004年中国石油表观消费总量增加5000多万吨,突破3亿吨大关,石油消费弹性系数达1.92。分析其原因,经济的快速增长是主要源动力,具体表现在:农业生产和农业机械化加快发展;运输业快速增长;发电用油需求仍然旺盛;虽然国家加强了宏观调控,但重化工业和固定资产项目投资等仍保持了较快增长。此外,成品油零售中准价的滞后调整、国内油价的低风险,以及市场主体和市场库容量的增加,也促进了2004年中国石油需求的快速增长。2004年影响中国石油需求的主要因素在2005年将继续发挥作用。综合分析进入2005年以来的经济运行情况,可以预计,2005年中国石油需求增速可能比2004年有所回落,但仍将保持在较高水平。

In 2004, China's apparent oil consumption increased by more than 50 million tons to over 300 million tons, with oil consumption elastic coefficient reaching 1.92. The major driving force was fast economic growth: accelerated development of agricultural production and agricultural mechanization; fast growth of the transportation industry; strong demand for power generation fuels; quick growth in investment in the heavy chemical industry and fixed asset projects despite intensified macro-regulation by the state. In addition, factors contributing to fast increase in China's oil demand in 2004 also included delayed adjustment of the benchmark retail price of products, low risk of domestic oil price rises, and increases in market participants and storage capacity. These factors will continue their influence in 2005. A comprehensive analysis of China's economic dynamics since the beginning of 2005 reveals that the increase in China's oil demand will remain at a high level, with a chance of a decrease, as compared to 2004.