我国通讯产品扩散的模型分析

DIFFUSION MODEL ANALYSIS OF CHINA'S COMMUNICATIONS

利用Bass创新扩散模型描述我国无线寻呼和移动电话的扩散过程.通过对无线寻呼和移动电话的历史数据进行模型参数的估计,建立无线寻呼和移动电话的采用者扩散模型,分析无线寻呼被市场淘汰的原因和移动电话的市场前景.

This paper demonstrates the diffusion process of wireless-pager and mobilephone with Bass Innovation Diffusion Model. Then uses the historical data of wireless-pager and mobilephone to estimate the parameter of the model, builds up the users' model of wireless-pager and mobilephone, and analyzes the causation of the freese-out of wireless-pager and the market prospect of the mobilephone. Finally, the paper discusses the model with the results.