GM(1,N)模型在城市道路交通噪声预测中的精度分析

Precision Analysis of GM(1,N) Model in City Road Traffic Noise Prediction

根据武汉市1998～2002年城市道路交通噪声检测数据以及相关的数据,分析相关因素的选取对GM(1,N)灰色模型的预测精度的影响。结果表明选取相关因素会降低GM(1,N)灰色模型的精度,而GM(1,1)模型则有较好的预测精度;利用GM(1,1)模型对武汉市2008年前的道路交通噪声进行了预测。

Based on the monitored data and relative data of Wuhan road traffic noise condition in the period of 1998-2002 , this paper analyses the influence of the use of relative factors on the predicting precision of GM(1,N) . The result is that the selection of relative factors sometimes lead to lower precision and GM (1,1) model will be better . Then using GM(1,1) model, a predicting of Wuhan city road traffic noise condition prior to the year 2008 was made.