理解中国转型:国家战略目标、制度调整与国际力量

Understanding China’s Transition: National Strategy, Institutional Adjustment, and International Forces

冷战结束以后,在国际社会中出现了两类发展中国家:一类是自20世纪60年代开始实行进口替代和出口导向发展战略的国家,其中部分国家已经成为人们所熟悉的“新兴工业化国家(地区)”;一类是冷战结束以后出现的从中央计划经济走向市场经济的国家,这些国家不仅面临着发展问题,而且也面临着转型问题。发展和转型问题成为国际政治经济学界广泛关注的研究课题。作者以中国转型期的宏观经济政策为案例,从国际政治经济学的角度回答如下3个相互关联的问题:中国的国家战略目标受到什么样的国内约束以及中央政府如何进行制度调整?国际力量如何影响中国国内的制度调整?社会主义市场经济作为一种制度设计如何在经济全球化的背景下框定中国经济改革的目标、次序以及速度,并使得中国在过去20年追求经济增长的同时能够顺利地进行转型?

There have been two kinds of developing countries in the contemporary international political economy (IPE) since the end of the Cold War: one is countries which took import-substitution and export-oriented development strategies since the 1960s —— some of these countries have become well-known NIEs; the other is those countries making the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market-oriented economy. Transition and development have become the key issues in international political economy. In this paper, by providing a case study of China’s macroeconomic policy over the past two decades, the author tries to answer three related questions from the IPE perspective: what kinds of domestic constraints has China faced to achieve its national strategic targets and what institutional adjustments has the central government undertaken? How and to what extent did international forces influence the domestic institutional adjustment? How did the socialist market economy, as a functional design, shape the target, sequencing, and pace of China’s economic reforms, and how did it allow China to maintain social stability while pursuing robust economic growth?