应用牧草生长—消费模型分析牧民的放牧行为——作为对政府管理行为的建议

Analysis on the selection of pasture grazing behaviors——As a suggestion to government’s management

利用牧草生长与消费模型,从理论和实际两个方面,对实施“双权一制”后牧民放牧行为的选择进行了分析。结果显示,由于牧民对草场使用权的预期不高,所以当前牧民采取的放牧策略不但对于其自身收益不是最优的,而且对生态环境的破坏也是最严重的,出现了草牧场使用的“非理性”现象。预期不高的主要原因是政策不稳定、不连续,因此保持政策的连续性、稳定性和协调性至关重要,且政府应该提前一段时间与牧民续签草场承包合同,而不是等到承包期限到期时再续签。同时,不断明晰产权,用允许牧民转让与买卖草场的方法来防止牧民破坏草场是可行的,而且也是畜牧业的规模化和产业化经营所必须的。因此,尽快明晰产权,建立健全草牧场流转市场是解决草牧场使用“非理性”的根本途径。

This paper looks at the suitability of pasture grazing management methods employed by herdsman. The suitability of these chosen methods were analyzed using the model of growth and consumption in grazing pasture system, from theoretical and practical angles of view under the policy of double rights and one system. Result showed that the strategies adopted by herdsman are suboptimal and can do great damage to the grassland environment because of the instability and lack of continuity in policy. It is therefore crucial to keep the policy stable and continuous and for the herdsman to resign the contract prior to the deadline. At the same time, it is both feasible and necessary to prevent the use of grazing behaviors which degrade the system and to achieve improved production by making property rights clear. Further, it is important to establish and consummate property market to solve the problem of suboptimal practices regarding pasture grazing methods.