破产风险的度量方法

Research on Measurement of Bankrupt Risks

针对破产风险问题,采用定性识别与模型计算相结合的方式,研究破产风险的识别、度量和控制·基于参数分布和模糊识别的方法对破产风险进行分类,提出破产概率推断方法、测量破产风险的概率模型、企业寿命分布概率函数·基于金融期权的定价理论,以企业资产为对象建立破产概率模型·最后给出破产风险控制的规划模型·

The factors that determine the bankrupt risk can be represented both qualitatively and quantitatively. To effectively recognize, measure and control bankrupt risk, an approach is suggested combining qualitative recognition with quantitative calculation based on modeling. A method based on parameter distribution and fuzzy recognition is adopted to classify bankrupt (risk.) In addition, a probability inference for bankrupt, a probability model to measure bankrupt risk and a probability distribution function of businesses lifetime are given. Focusing on business assets and based on the pricing theory of financial options, the model of bankrupt probability is developed. Finally, a planning model to control bankrupt risk is given.